Huge Margin Debt Hangs Over the Stock Market Like the Sword of Damocles

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Huge Margin Debt Hangs Over the Stock Market Like the Sword of Damocles. As the chart below shows, investors have racked up huge margin debt in the hopes of increasing performance in a rising market. But that huge debt overhanging the stock market by a thread like the sword of Damocles means greater risk on…

Not Enough Bearish Sentiment to Suggest an Intermediate Stock Market Bottom

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Not Enough Bearish Sentiment to Suggest an Intermediate Market Bottom.  We use investor sentiment as contrarian indictors to ascertain stock market direction. Bullish sentiment in the Investor Intelligence Bulls/Bears poll of market newsletter writers dropped to 42.7% from 49% the previous week sparked by the recent correction. However, bearish sentiment barely moved, going from 17.3%…

Why Should We Worry About the Longest US Economic Expansion Ever? Well,  Sh*it Happens!

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Why Should We Worry About the Longest US Economic Expansion Ever? In July the U. S. economic expansion which began in June 2009, will set the record at 121 months as the longest in memory (see chart), beating out the 10-year, 120-month expansion which ended in March 2009. Should we be worried?  Recessions tend to…

Why the Recent High in The Consumer Confidence Index is Scary

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Why the Recent High in The Consumer Confidence Index is Scary.  The Consumer Confidence Index hit another new high this month, the highest in 19 years. While one would think this is a positive, it’s actually as scary as it gets. Why?   That’s because consumers typically react to what’s in the rear-view mirror. They tend…

Stock Market Sentiment Indicators Say It’s Still Not Time to Buy

ByBrad Lamensdorf

Stock Market Sentiment Indicators Say It’s Still Not Time to Buy.  We use investor sentiment as contrarian indicators of when the stock market is oversold and overbought.  Because investors are historically wrong about when to buy and when to sell. The recent stock market correction has moved the indicators down from very bullish sentiment levels…