Investor Sentiment Suggests Market Bounce

Short-term investor sentiment has turned bullish.  The CNN Fear/Greed at 13means investors are very fearful. The Ned Davis Research short-term gauge is at 13. Both are very bullish signals from a contrarian point of view because investors are historically wrong about market direction. Meanwhile, intermediate term sentiment also is looking more bullish. The NDR crowd…

The NDR Composite Model for U.S. Stocks Moves Into Bearish Territory

The Ned Davis Research Composite Model for the U.S. Stock Market is based on an equal weighting of 50% of U.S. stock market internal and 50% external indicators. The NDR model has proven to be an important tool for identifying periods of outperformance and underperformance for the stock market. While the top chart plots the…

Sentiment Indicators Show Equity Investors are Finally Getting Worried

We use investment sentiment as contrarian indicators because historically investors tend to be terrible at market timing, buying nearer tops and selling nearer bottoms.  So for practically all of 2018 as the markets cascaded down, investors remained unduly optimistic.  Now they are finally showing signs of fear, which could be part of a bottoming process….

Investor Sentiment indicates Market is  Ready for Short-Term Bounce Intermediate-Term Sentiment Signals are Somewhat Positive

The most recent short-term sentiment gauges are indicating investors have turned very fearful about market conditions, with the CNN Fear/Greed index at 7 and the Ned Davis Research short-term indicator at 15. From a contrarian point of view this is very bullish for equity markets over the next four to six weeks since historically investors…