Sharp Fall in German Manufacturing is Another Sign of Global Economic Slowdown. German Manufacturing output in July was the worst in seven years. As measured by the German Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), a survey of prevailing economic marketing trends that is a major planning tool for corporate decision makers. It fell to 43.1 in July …
New York Federal Reserve Model Indicating Recession Next Year
The New York Federal Reserve indicating recession next year. That is based on a model it created using the spread between yields on 10-year and 3-month Treasuries to forecast economic conditions one year ahead. The latest model shows a 33% probability of recession next year. That is very worrisome because, as the chart shows, this…
Crestmont P/E is Warning Stock Market May Be Dangerously High
Crestmont P/E is Warning Stock Market May Be Dangerously High. Crestmont Research’s Crestmont P/E gives us a better picture of price earnings. This helps evaluate the stock market. As you can see in the chart in blue below, its present valuation at 32.1 is just slightly below the P/E. This happened at about the time…
Record Amount of Negative-Yielding Debt Signaling Expansion of Global Slowdown
Record Amount of Negative-Yielding Debt Signaling Global Slowdown. The market value of negative yielding debt globally hit a record $12.5 trillion this past week. This was spurred by investor anxiety over clear signs of a weakening global economy. This is indicative by persistently low inflation, China-US trade tensions and geopolitics, particularly in the Middle East….
Huge Margin Debt Hangs Over the Stock Market Like the Sword of Damocles
Huge Margin Debt Hangs Over the Stock Market Like the Sword of Damocles. As the chart below shows, investors have racked up huge margin debt in the hopes of increasing performance in a rising market. But that huge debt overhanging the stock market by a thread like the sword of Damocles means greater risk on…