Chart of the Week

Why Should We Worry About the Longest US Economic Expansion Ever? In July the U. S. economic expansion which began in June 2009, will set the record at 121 months as the longest in memory (see chart), beating out the 10-year, 120-month expansion which ended in March 2009. Should we be worried?  Recessions tend to…

Why the Recent High in The Consumer Confidence Index is Scary.  The Consumer Confidence Index hit another new high this month, the highest in 19 years. While one would think this is a positive, it’s actually as scary as it gets. Why?   That’s because consumers typically react to what’s in the rear-view mirror. They tend…

Why Huge Problems at Nomura and Deutsch Bank Could be Troubling.  After years of mismanagement, Japan’s Nomura and Germany’s Deutsch Bank are in deep trouble. As the charts below show, their stocks are at multi-year lows while the stock market is at near-record highs. Why should we worry? Both financial giants are tremendously overleveraged. They…

Delinquent auto loas are climbing auto loans that are more than 90 days delinquent is climbing.  See the chart below.   Among the reasons: More loans to less credit-worthy consumers.  This often occurs in mature stages of economic booms as a way for the automobile industry to bolster sales. See More Chart of the Week Posts:

The appetite for IPOs is a fascinating study in sentiment. In all the market changes over the decades, that has been one constant. Three years ago, we saw that sentiment was so skittish that it had been months since an IPO had priced above its indicated range. By October 2018, not only had the market…