Chart of the Week

S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Signaling Market is Overbought.  There’s obviously no sure-fire way of determining when the stock market has bottomed, and it is time to buy. Or, for that matter, when it is near a top and it is time to head for the sidelines. However, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is…

Stock Market Risk Grows with Explosion of Negative-Earning IPOs. As the chart from Topdown Charts shows about 76% of recent IPOs have gone public with negative earnings. That’s a near record, matching 1999 and only surpassed by 2000 when the dot.com bubble burst. Why is this an ominous sign? Historically the percentage of risky IPOs…

IMF Cut in Global Growth Rate is Another Warning for Stock Market.  The International Monetary Fund just cut its projection for 2019’s global growth to 3.3 percent.  Its January forecast was 3.5 percent. That would be the lowest growth rate since the financial crisis in 2009 when the global economy shrank (see chart below).  The…

IPO Calendars Can be Warning Signs of Rough Times Ahead for Stock Market.  Large IPOs typically occur during times when stocks are fashionable to own.   Large IPO’s with large one day pops are synonymous with a high-risk stock market environment fueled by overly optimistic investors. The chart below from www.sentimentrader.com shows big market drops after…

Falling Consumer Confidence May be Signaling Stock Market Drop and a Recession.  Almost six months ago consumer confidence in the U.S. economy was just about as high as it gets. Then consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board  dropped amid a big stock market correction and worrisome economic news before rebounding earlier in 2019….