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About David Tice

Tice founded the Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX) and served as portfolio manager from 1996-2008. For the ten years ended 12/08 when Tice sold the fund, BEARX increased in value at a 8.0% annualized rate, while the S&P 500 lost 1.4% annually. Tice utilized short sales of overvalued common stocks and stock indices, as well as being long mining companies to achieve a negatively-correlated investment return profile. Mr. Tice began his investment career in 1988 by publishing Behind the Numbers, an investment research service that focused on “Quality of Earnings Warnings and sell recommendations” for more than 150 money managers who collectively managed more than $2 trillion.

His work gained national recognition through several Barron's articles he wrote, and from more than 200 appearances on business television. Tice has taken the role of a Cassandra to warn investors about the dangers of investing near the end of a secular bull market and the problems with relying on credit growth to expand the economy, and he has debated nearly every bullish Wall Street strategist. In September 1999, Mr. Tice hosted the New York symposium, "The Credit Bubble and its Aftermath" to alert the media, investors and policy makers about the risks created by the historic expansion of credit. The Symposium was covered by the next day’s front page of the Wall Street Journal. In June 2001, Mr. Tice testified before Congress regarding conflicts of interest of Wall Street and the consequences of capital markets that lack integrity.

Since his role at Federated, Tice currently serves as President of Tice Capital and executive producer and financier of a major motion picture entitled Soul Surfer, released in 2011. He’s also on the Advisory Board of XBullion, a gold-backed secure token and the Vantage Point Australian Macro Fund, a fund designed to make money in an expected Australian mortgage crisis. He’s also been a very active board member and investor in a cybersecurity SaaS company that provides ‘intelligent data’ protection.

In the Media

Hear David speak on King World News

In this interview David discusses the U.S. stock market, U.S. Dollar, gold, silver, the Fed, bailouts, sentiment, the consumer, a coming funding crisis, threats to our freedoms, capital controls and much more.

Category: Insight & Perspective

Stocks will fall at least 30% in a drawn-out bear market, investor David Tice warns

Long-time bear David Tice has new warning for investors.

He expects stocks to fall at least 30% in a downturn that lasts two years. One of his major reasons: Business unfriendly policies from Washington.

“We now have a Biden administration that has a Senate and a House. They’re likely to enact very much more anti-capitalist policies,” the investor told “Trading Nation” on Friday. “They have already raised the minimum wage. That’s going to hurt earnings on the cost side.”

According to Tice, easy monetary and fiscal policies that support money printing will also sting Wall Street.

“All of this is not good for financial markets,” he added.

Tice is known for running the Prudent Bear Fund before selling to Federated in 2008, just as the financial crisis was unfolding.

Now as an advisor to the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF, Tice has spent much of his career making bearish bets during bull markets. His current fund, which is also designed to profit from underperformance, has been under pressure. It’s down 32% in the last three months.

In his latest warning, Tice contends the problems are piling higher. He also cites an overvalued market and coronavirus vaccine concerns for his pessimism.

“The vaccine is not really a panacea,” he added. “We’ve seen a lot of optimism about that, but there are new strains of the virus, and there is certainly risk going forward.”

Tice acknowledges his timing hasn’t always been on the mark.

“I’ve seen bear markets approach, and people have called me a perma bear,” he said. “I’m a believer in the Austrian School of Economics that says that the magnitude of the decline is proportional to the excesses created during the prior boom. I was early in 1998, 1999 and in 2006 to 2007.”

‘When it breaks, it’s likely to break hard’: Long-time bear David Tice has new warning for investors.

Despite his bearishness, Tice doesn’t have a timeline on when the market trouble will start.

“Markets tend to get extended,” he said. “But when it breaks, it’s likely to break hard and cause investors to suffer for a long time.”

So, Tice is still advocating gold, which up more than 25% since the March 23 stock market bottom, as a top asset for investors.

“Gold is dramatically under-owned by individuals and portfolio managers,” he noted. “Gold stocks are incredibly cheap.”

He also likes bitcoin as an investment.

“I don’t think that bitcoin can be ignored,” Tice said. “We have seen the price of bitcoin go from $10,000 to $40,000 which I think is foreshadowing potentially what might happen in gold.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on Tice’s remarks.

WATCH DAVID TICE CNBC INTERVIEW ON THIS TOPIC

Disclosure: David Tice owns gold, gold stocks, silver and bitcoin. He also owns puts in the S&P 500 and QQQ.

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Grid Down, No 2nd Chance !

We at Paul Revere Films, LLC have been working tirelessly over the last four months on a documentary warning the country about the threat of a ‘grid down’ scenario. America faces enormous threats to our power grid and the failure at many levels to deal with them.  In this cataclysmic scenario, an electromagnet pulse attack (EMP), cyber-attack, or geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) could shut down our electricity grid for as long as one calendar year or longer. If you thought the recent COVID virus was paralyzing, this dwarfs that incident by 1000-fold. Once again, the country is unprepared in the face of great peril but cost-effective solutions currently exist.     The documentary shows this ‘hope’ as well as providing a legislative letter writing campaign to state and federal legislators and to each constituent’s state utility commission chairman We’re at the 5-yard line and are finishing the movie right now, and expect to release it in early 2021.   We’re now beginning seeking publicity so it can build to a crescendo for our release.  I’d like your help in getting the word spread, so please tell your contacts.  Our website is www.GridDownDoc.com with tons of content and you can see our trailer.   

We’re warning about the risk of EMP, GMD and cyberattack leading to a protracted blackout.  I’ve attached our most current summary document that provides a number of compelling 2-minute videos succinctly making our case.   I’ve included some select quotes from this attachment in italics but I urge you to read our six-page document.   We’re attempting to create a groundswell of public opinion to help get our grid secure and help create more of a culture of preparedness.

If you thought the recent COVID virus was paralyzing, this dwarfs that incident by 1000-fold.  We’re shutting down the nation’s commerce in fear of 100,000 deaths, but having the power be down for more than a year could potentially kill 250,000,000.   Once again, the country is unprepared in the face of great peril, but cost-effective solutions currently exist.  Why didn’t we have enough masks and PPE in February?

We’re also  providing pre-written letters to their eight key lawmakers (state legislators, utility commission chairman, Congressmen/Senators, FEMA director & National Guard Adjutant General, expressing outrage and demanding them to take specific actions. Additionally, from our film proceeds, we will contribute to and help fund several 501©(3) organizations to execute action plans working with legislators & agencies.   A pre-set percentage of film proceeds will go towards these patriotic organizations to help ensure we’re successful in protecting our power grid.  These organizations have ‘warriors’ fighting for this mission and they’ll ensure follow-up, and the legislators are being warned ‘they are being watched’ and will be called upon later assessing progress.   (you can read these letters by going to our blog section on our website.)

Completely unique from other ‘fear-oriented’ documentaries, is that there’s absolute hope to be able to fix this problem.  Current technology exists to ‘harden’ our power grid and new high-tech products have made it less expensive. There are regional initiatives that are being successfully pursued that illustrate how success can be easily achieved with the right organization and effort and we cover one of these in some detail. This is Ambassador Hank Cooper’s Lake Wylie project being conducted in Rock Hill, SC.   This 6-minute clip will be included in the film.   https://vimeo.com/441228101    Password: GridDown0730

Our website is www.GridDownDoc.com.   I’ve just added significant content in our Blog section that you should peruse.   It truly is an incontrovertible outreach but we’re dealing with cognitive dissonance of the highest order that must be overcome.. This is why we need influencers like yourself to get behind the mission.

David

————————————-

Fellow American, 

With my partners at Paul Revere Films, LLC, I’m in the final stages of finishing a shocking, but hopeful documentary detailing enormous threats to our power grid and the failure at many levels to deal with them. I’m a businessman, entrepreneur and proud American Patriot with four grandchildren. We truly believe this documentary can ‘go viral’ and you can be enormously proud to be a key part of it. Our intent is to reach the greatest number of Americans possible. This is a passion project for us to protect our great country. 

We are at grave risk of the US power grid shutting down completely. In this cataclysmic scenario, a orchestrated physical attack, electromagnet pulse attack (EMP), cyber-attack, or geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) could shut down our electricity grid for as long as one calendar year or longer.If you thought the recent COVID virus was paralyzing, this dwarfs that incident by 1000-fold. We’re shutting down the nation’s commerce in fear of 100,000 deaths, but having the power be down for more than a year could potentially kill 250,000,000. Once again, the country is unprepared in the face of great peril, but cost-effective solutions currently exist. Why didn’t we have enough masks and PPE in February? I’ve provided several two-minute web links to help you understand the risk. 

What’s encouraging about this film, and completely unique from other ‘fear- oriented’ documentaries, is that there’s absolute hope to be able to fix this problem. Current technology exists to ‘harden’ our power grid and new high-tech products have made it less expensive. There are regional initiatives that are being successfully pursued that illustrate how success can be easily achieved with the right organization and effort and we cover one of these in some detail. The documentary articulates this ‘hope’ as well as providing a legislative letter writing campaign to state and federal legislators and to each constituent’s state utility commission chairman and key state emergency preparedness personnel including FEMA and the National Guard. A copy of our US Congressman letter is included at the end of this document. 

A potential shut-down will render banks, hospitals, water purification plants, phones, and anything that requires electrical power, useless, again for possibly more than a year. We have received direct and veiled threats in the last year from the top leaders of each of our adversaries: Iran, North Korea, China & Russia. 

Note ex-General & former Trump advisor John Kelly on EMP: 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/873452/North-Korea-World-War-3-Donald-Trump-Kim-Jong-un-US-war-news electromagnetic-pulse-bomb Surprisingly truncated from the complete interview is Kelly’s statement that it still keeps him awake at night. 

Threats can come from either: 

North Korea. China
Iran
Russia
Rogue terrorists 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN99IM-Fq9o https://michaelmabee.info/china-emp-threat/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DyEsmwQOg4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRHUoDb-dfI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiXJD1TU1ps&t=4s 

These potential adversaries are now working together in an ominous development. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rg5jNwCJ0FM 

Additionally, a GMD is overdue as the risk is significant that a solar storm as big as what occurred in the Carrington Event in 1859 could shut down our power grid for an extended time period. NASA estimates that we face a 12% chance per decade of this occurring. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2fCIoS9unE FEMA outlines that areas that are estimated at a 10% chance per decade are considered as ‘special flood hazard areas’. 

But there are ways to prevent this event from shutting down our precious electricity, which supports all our critical system enabling daily life. It will require a groundswell of the American people to rise up and demand that we address & fix this vulnerability. The importance of this phenomena to eventual success was even mentioned in a 2019 Congressional Roundtable discussing EMP. The American people possess the power to demand new legislation, restructure executive remedies, and become true Patriots fighting on the ground, and we can accomplish this. We are offering action response tools to allow the public to make their voice heard and followed through upon. 

As we will show in the film, our grid system is vulnerable to four basic forms of attack: 

1) Physical attack
2) Cyber attack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjsesbT7U-o

3) EMP – Electromagnetic Pulse attack
4) GMD – Solar Geomagnetic Storm Disturbance 

There is a belief among many that malware now exists within our power grid component software to accomplish such a catastrophe at an enemy’s timing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3is-AzwPoC8 So far, protections have not been put into place because of incompetence, vested interests, poor organization, and obstruction occurring by those who oversee and administer the grid’s workings. It is a national tragedy, but one that can be rectified. U.S. Senator Ron Johnson is quoted at the end of this report from February 2019 and his comments reflect the bottom line that ‘now’s the time for action’ & this film will make it happen. Our policymakers have been talking about this for more than a decade and still virtually nothing has been done to protect us. See Newt Gingrich warning the country in 2009. He’s still making the same appeal today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vurpNu84seU 

To ensure follow-through to accomplish our objective of protecting our power grid, we have an action plan incorporating two initiatives. For all viewers of the film, we’re providing pre-written letters to their eight key lawmakers (state legislators, utility commission chairman, Congressmen/Senators, FEMA director & National Guard Adjutant General, expressing outrage and demanding them to take specific actions. Additionally, from our film proceeds, we will contribute to and help fund several 501©(3) organizations to execute action plans working with legislators & agencies. A pre-set percentage of film proceeds will go towards these patriotic organizations to help ensure we’re successful in protecting our power grid. These organizations have ‘warriors’ fighting for this mission and they’ll ensure follow-up, and the legislators are being warned ‘they are being watched’. These organizations are itemized at the end of this document. Conscious follow-up like these can create real solutions. 

Additionally, film viewers will be provided a PDF document and a link to a video articulating what measures they can take to protect their own family should we not protect our power grid in time, and we experience a national emergency. 

This is an important moment in history. What we do and how we face these threats will determine whether we as a society as we know it will literally survive. This is not hyperbole, I promise. It has been estimated by the federally funded EMP Commission, which reported to Congress that in a protracted ‘grid-down’ situation, 75%-90% of Americans would not survive. This film documents leading expert opinions, explains in a clear voice what we’re dealing with, how we got in this predicament, and outlines which action steps we can take to ensure we protect this great nation’s future. We also need to initiate a stronger civil defense attitude in this country. 

Given the gravity of the message in this film, we hope to start a groundswell movement. Some new technology exists that can be implemented to harden substations in only a two-week period so some action can be taken quickly. Tell your network about us by sharing our message with your Facebook and Linked-In friends. Send them to our website at LightsOutDoc.com or GridDownDoc.com. Thank you for your time, contributions, and concern for the future. 

A TIME FOR ACTION – Senator Ron Johnson 

“We have known about the existential threat posed by electromagnetic pulses (EMP) and geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) for decades. Our nation’s leadership has proved inept in getting the job done in protecting us. Our military has spent hundreds of billions on protecting our weaponry, but our civilian infrastructure has been virtually ignored. Because most people are either unaware of the danger or view these as very low probability events, there has not been sufficient public pressure to take effective action to mitigate these threats. Instead, we have established commissions and study panels, conducted research, and developed plans to develop strategies. It is way past time to stop admiring this problem, and we must actually begin to do something concrete to protect our vulnerable electrical grid, control systems, and the ever-increasing array of electronic devices our society has become dependent upon.” 

Senator Ron Johnson, 2/27/19 – Roundtable: Perspectives on Protecting the Power Grid from an EMP or GMD, Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee. 

501-c-3 Organizations to be Supported 

EMP Task Force
Secure the Grid Coalition High Frontier
EMPact America Aquaponics,LLC 

EMPTaskForce.US SecuretheGrid.org HighFrontier.org EMPactAmerica.org MichaelMabee.info 

Here’s our template letter to each individual Congressman that will be provided with similar but custom-tailored letters to your state legislators, utility commission chairman, FEMA disaster coordinator and state National Guard Adjutant General. 

Congressman xxx 

As a resident of this great state and thus a constituent, I’m very worried about the security of our electric power grid. I just watched a very disturbing but hopeful documentary entitled ‘Grid Down, No Second Chance’ and I’m very upset about how little our national and state leadership has done to secure this most critical infrastructure, which completely vulnerable to many natural and manmade hazards. 

I urge you to take the following actions: 

1) Watch this important documentary and understand as much as possible about the various hazards to our country’s crucial power grid, such as electromagnetic pulse (EMP), geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) or “space weather”, cyberattacks, physical sabotage and extreme weather. 

2) Immediately join the Bipartisan Congressional EMP Caucus and sponsor and/or support legislation to harden the electric grid against all hazards. 

3) Make an effort to reintroduce and pass the bipartisan House Resolution 762 from the 112th Congress. (“Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives regarding community-based civil defense and power generation”). Push for a desperately needed renewed culture of preparedness in the United States 

4) Quickly learn about objections to Senate Bill 3688 and vote against such bill should it get to the House for a vote. This legislation poses a danger to the security, reliability, and safety of the electric grid in that it codifies a systemic coverup of electric grid standard violations by the industry and their self-regulator, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). 

We viewers of this documentary are ‘mad as hell, and we aren’t going to take this anymore’, in the words of broadcaster Howard Beale, from the famous movie Network. We are very familiar with the influence of the electric power industry over its regulators and our elected officials, including lobbying and campaign contributions. We’re going to be watching our elected leaders closely to see if they will continue to ignore threats to our power grid, be influenced and placated by grid lobbyists, and thus putting our homeland in peril. 

We expect you to do the right thing and take this threat seriously. We also want to offer that the growing awareness of these vulnerabilities will help rate pay understand the need for grid protection, and possibly for rate increases, hopefully making your job and that of the utilities easier as we all embark on this critical task of securing the grid. 

signed, Constituent/film viewer 

 

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