Sentiment Updates

By John Del Vecchio and Brad Lamensdorf Deja Vu all Over Again Stocks have been partying like it’s 1999 all over again.  The real action is in unprofitable IPOs. Take a look at the chart, courtesy of BofA Global Research: Unprofitable IPOs just hit 80%, the same level near the peak of the Internet Bubble….

By John Del Vecchio and Brad Lamensdorf The stock market continues to set records and bulls are raging. Weekly market sentiment, courtesy of Investors Intelligence, shows bulls at 61.2% while bears are in hibernation at 16.5% Bulls have topped 60% (a major warning sign) for nine consecutive weeks while bears hover near a 2 ½…

By John Del Vecchio and Brad Lamensdorf Fund managers have blown their wad of cash. The B of A Global Fund Manager Survey shows that cash levels have dipped below 4%. This is a contrarian indicator. Historically, cash levels below 4% indicate little cash on hand while 5% has proven to be too defensive. A…

By John Del Vecchio and Brad Lamensdorf Euphoria in the market is literally off the charts.  Here’s the Panic / Euphoria model from Citi below.   Not much else needs to be said other than it’s time to work into hedges. The team at SentimenTrader tried their hand at recreating the Citi model based on…

By John Del Vecchio and Brad Lamensdorf The froth in market sentiment has backed off a bit but still in the danger zone. Stock market bulls still top 60%, and while bears have inched up a bit, the spread between the two exceeds nearly 43%. As the chart below from Investors Intelligence shows, the bull/bear…