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Category: Sentiment Updates

Short-term sentiment was mixed this week

Short-term sentiment was mixed this week. NDR short-term sentiment dropped a bit to 50,

A neutral ready. However the CNN Fear & Greed Index moved from 62 to 71, a negative

suggestive of too much bullishness creeping into the market.

The intermediate-term indicators were inline with last weeks gauges, which were a bit too bullish.

NDR crowd sentiment came in at 67.5%, very close to the dangerous

70% plus area. Investor’s intelligence registered at 55% bulls and 18% bears, which remains unfavorable and indicates that

There are currently too many bullish newsletter writers. Sentiment continues to keep us cautious.

Short term sentiment gauges jumped over the last week

Short term sentiment gauges jumped over the last week. The CNN fear greed index moved to 67 while NDR short term sentiment is at 62. . While not overbought they are starting to lean bullish. I would rate this neutral at best.

Long term sentiment jumped quite a bit over the last week, NDR Crowd sentiment climbed to 68. Anything over 70 on this gauge should warrant caution. Investors-Intelligence Bull/ Bear sentiment moved to 55% bulls from 52%. The bears remained about the same at 18% bearish. Newsletter writers remain far too bullish and both of these are An intermediate term negative.

The US Stock Service and the US Market Timing service are provided by Chartcraft Inc (“Chartcraft”), which is not a regulated business. All other services are provided by Stockcube Research Limited (“Stockcube”) which is authorised and regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority. Chartcraft and Stockcube are wholly-owned by Stockcube Ltd, a UK company registered in England.

Long-term Sentiment Gauges Flash Warning Signs for Stocks

Short term measurement of investor sentiment remained in neutral territory this week. That makes it difficult from a contrarian point of view to predict market direction for the near future. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved to 57 while the Ned Davis Research (NDR) Short-Term Sentiment Poll rose to 62 from last week’s 52. I would rate this neutral at best.

On the other hand, long term sentiment jumped quite a bit over the last week, flashing warning signs for stock investors.  NDR Crowd Sentiment climbed to 67. Anything near 70 or more means investors should be careful. The Investors Intelligence Bull/ Bear measurement of sentiment among investment newsletter writers moved to 55% bullish from 52%. The bears remained about the same at 19%. Since these writers are historically wrong, the Bull/Bear poll also is telling investors to watch out.

The US Stock Service and the US Market Timing service are provided by Chartcraft Inc (“Chartcraft”), which is not a regulated business. All other services are provided by Stockcube Research Limited (“Stockcube”) which is authorised and regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority. Chartcraft and Stockcube are wholly-owned by Stockcube Ltd, a UK company registered in England. 

Short-term sentiment indicators are mid-range this week

Short-term sentiment indicators are mid-range this week. The CNN fear index is at 47, while the short term NDR sentiment is at 52. We use these indicators as guides to which way the market will go. Since they are in neutral territory this week they are not giving us a way to judge market direction

Long term sentiment remains stubbornly high. NDR crowd sentiment is at 62, which is on the lofty side.

The Investors-Intelligence bulls/bears came in it at 52% bulls and 19% bears, which remains high. The spread also remains a bit wider than we would like, continuing to show intermediate term complacency.

Long term sentiment wont capitulate

Short term gauges have retreated further due to trade fears. The CNN fear/greed indicator fell to 33 from 37. This number is now on the low side of the ledger. The NDR short term sentiment gauge fell to 42 from the mid 50’s, which is also a short term positive.

Intermediate term indicators remain stubbornly on the high end of their range. Investor’s Intelligence bulls/ bears was 47% bulls and 19% bears, while the NDR crowd sentiment number came in at close to 60. A major bottom tends to occur when the intermediate sentiment is oversold, which has yet to occur.

Short term bounces are coming in on a deteriorating tape. Investors should remain patient and wait for gauges to move into oversold territory.

Brad

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