THE LMTR EDGE:

Join over 25,000 investors and get alerts for:
  • Market Timing Reports
  • Sentiment Updates
  • Chart of the Week
  • Weekly Podcasts
  • The Magic Number - Top Stocks

Do Trump’s Chances Hinge on a Strong Market or Vice Versa?

“With a rise in social unrest, confusion over the pandemic response, and a highly volatile market, the probability of President Trump holding onto his office has dwindled,” says Jason Goepfert  of SentimenTrader.  Why? “Whatever one’s political association, there seems to be a clear correlation between re-election odds and the price path of the Dow Industrials,” says Goepfert. He notes, however, that with any correlation “it is hard to know whether it’s just happenstance, or even which one might be causing the other.”

Goeppert looked at the performance of the DJIA for the 100 days before a presidential election. That’s about the time until this year’s election. As the charts and tables below show, prior to a Republican winning, the Dow didn’t suffer a single loss. However, the DJIA showed losses for the six months when a sitting Republican lost to a Democrat.  Except for 1932. So, if history repeats itself in 2020, the President and the Wall Street bulls should be praying for a steady increase in the DJIA until election day.

 

Do Trump’s Chances Hinge on a Strong Market or Vice Versa?
Do Trump’s Chances Hinge on a Strong Market or Vice Versa?

 

Do Trump’s Chances Hinge on a Strong Market or Vice Versa?
Do Trump’s Chances Hinge on a Strong Market or Vice Versa?

 

See More Chart of the Week Posts:


Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

2018 - All Rights Reserved © LMTR, LLC

Privacy Policy - Contact Email: info@lmtr.com