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Historical Trends Suggest Major Stock Market Volatility and Weakness In The Months Ahead

Historical Trends Suggest Major Stock Market Volatility and Weakness In The Months Ahead.  Troy Bombardia is well known for his astute analysis on the stock market and trading based on historical trends.  He notes that huge swings in volatility in 2003 resulted in mostly bearish returns for the S&P 500 in the months ahead (See chart and table below). Today we appear to have a similar situation.  The market has recently swung from bear market territory of minus 20% below one-year highs to more than 33% of S&P stocks at eight week highs. That to us suggests stock market weakness for the next two to six months amid more high volatility.

Historical Trends Suggest Major Stock Market Volatility and Weakness In The Months Ahead
Historical Trends Suggest Major Stock Market Volatility and Weakness In The Months Ahead

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Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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