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Intermediate-Term Sentiment Indicators Flash Warning Signs for Stocks

Measurement of the level of  investor optimism for the short term moved slightly higher this week compared with the previous week. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved to 61 while the Ned Davis Research (NDR) Short-Term Sentiment Poll was at 60. From a contrarian point of view that indicates stock market investors should be cautious but not overly alarmed for the near term.

On the other hand,  sentiment indicators on market direction over the intermediate term are flashing warning signs. The NDR crowd sentiment is at 67, which is quite high. The Investors Intelligence Bulls/Bears is at a very optimistic 57% bulls and 18% bears.  This puts the bulls/bears ratio at 40, which is in the danger zone.

Investors Intelligence Research -Reproduction and re-transmission of this report, and the data contained within, is strictly prohibited without prior permission.

Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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