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Investor Sentiment Indicates Increased Stock Market Risk

We use investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator, and those indicators are signaling increased stock market risk. For instance, the Investor Intelligence Bulls/Bears poll of stock market newsletter writer sentiment shows bullish sentiment moved up to 57.2% from 54.2% a week ago, which calls for defensive measures. A number above 55% means elevated risk. Bearish sentiment at 17.1% also called for defensive action. Meanwhile, the spread between bullish and bearish sentiment expanded to +40.1%, from +37.4% last time. A number above 40% also calls for elevated risk and increased defensive measures.

Investor Sentiment Indicates Increased Stock Market Risk
Investor Sentiment Indicates Increased Stock Market Risk

 

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Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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