Investor Sentiment indicates Market is Ready for Short-Term Bounce Intermediate-Term Sentiment Signals are Somewhat Positive
The most recent short-term sentiment gauges are indicating investors have turned very fearful about market conditions, with the CNN Fear/Greed index at 7 and the Ned Davis Research short-term indicator at 15. From a contrarian point of view this is very bullish for equity markets over the next four to six weeks since historically investors are usually wrong about market direction.
Intermediate term indicators are leaning toward the bullish camp for the markets over the next six to nine months but they are not as outright positive as the short-term indicators. The Investors Intelligence poll of sentiment of market newsletter writers has bearish sentiment unchanged at 21% and bullish sentiment retreating to 39%. Bearish sentiment for this poll needs to move into the upper 30s before I could feel more positive that an intermediate bull market is ahead. Meanwhile, the intermediate NDR moved down to 50, another positive signs for the markets. But, based on historical trends, it should be at 40 to be really signaling an intermediate market bounce.