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Long-term Sentiment Gauges Flash Warning Signs for Stocks

Short term measurement of investor sentiment remained in neutral territory this week. That makes it difficult from a contrarian point of view to predict market direction for the near future. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved to 57 while the Ned Davis Research (NDR) Short-Term Sentiment Poll rose to 62 from last week’s 52. I would rate this neutral at best.

On the other hand, long term sentiment jumped quite a bit over the last week, flashing warning signs for stock investors.  NDR Crowd Sentiment climbed to 67. Anything near 70 or more means investors should be careful. The Investors Intelligence Bull/ Bear measurement of sentiment among investment newsletter writers moved to 55% bullish from 52%. The bears remained about the same at 19%. Since these writers are historically wrong, the Bull/Bear poll also is telling investors to watch out.

The US Stock Service and the US Market Timing service are provided by Chartcraft Inc (“Chartcraft”), which is not a regulated business. All other services are provided by Stockcube Research Limited (“Stockcube”) which is authorised and regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority. Chartcraft and Stockcube are wholly-owned by Stockcube Ltd, a UK company registered in England. 


Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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