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Market Sentiment Gauges Flashing Mixed Signals

Short-term measures of investor market sentiment are flashing warning signs. The Ned Davis Research (NDR) gauge has moved up to a sell signal at 78, a very high number for this short-term measure. Meanwhile, at  62, CNN’s Fear/Greed gauge has moved higher into the greed zone, also warning investors to be cautious. from a contrarian point of view.

Long-term sentiment gauges, on the other hand, have become more bullish. The Investor’s intelligence bulls/bears sentiment number has

jumped to 52% bullish, while the bears have dropped to 19%. Meanwhile, the NDR intermediate crowd sentiment number is basically unchanged at 64.  While this is high, it does not enter intermediate sell territory until it reaches 70.

 

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

–Warren Buffett 


Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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