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Market Sentiment Gauges Warn: “Be Fearful” 

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
– Warren Buffett

Short-term and intermediate-term sentiment gauges are signaling investors have become greedy –  warning signs that that stock prices are too high. The CNN Fear and Greed Index is now in greedy territory at 63.  Meanwhile, the Ned Davis Research (NDR) short-term sentiment gauge is at 85, compared with 18 last February. That also means greed and excessive optimism pervade investor sentiment.

Intermediate-term sentiment this week also moved into the sell territory.  The NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll moved up to 69, signaling excessive investor optimism.  Another contrarian indicator, the Investors Intelligence Sentiment Poll of investment newsletter writers, also move back into the sell area with 56% of writers bullish and 18% bearish.


Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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