About David Tice

Tice founded the Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX) and served as portfolio manager from 1996-2008. For the ten years ended 12/08 when Tice sold the fund, BEARX increased in value at a 8.0% annualized rate, while the S&P 500 lost 1.4% annually. Tice utilized short sales of overvalued common stocks and stock indices, as well as being long mining companies to achieve a negatively-correlated investment return profile. Mr. Tice began his investment career in 1988 by publishing Behind the Numbers, an investment research service that focused on “Quality of Earnings Warnings and sell recommendations” for more than 150 money managers who collectively managed more than $2 trillion.

His work gained national recognition through several Barron's articles he wrote, and from more than 200 appearances on business television. Tice has taken the role of a Cassandra to warn investors about the dangers of investing near the end of a secular bull market and the problems with relying on credit growth to expand the economy, and he has debated nearly every bullish Wall Street strategist. In September 1999, Mr. Tice hosted the New York symposium, "The Credit Bubble and its Aftermath" to alert the media, investors and policy makers about the risks created by the historic expansion of credit. The Symposium was covered by the next day’s front page of the Wall Street Journal. In June 2001, Mr. Tice testified before Congress regarding conflicts of interest of Wall Street and the consequences of capital markets that lack integrity.

Since his role at Federated, Tice currently serves as President of Tice Capital and executive producer and financier of a major motion picture entitled Soul Surfer, released in 2011. He’s also on the Advisory Board of XBullion, a gold-backed secure token and the Vantage Point Australian Macro Fund, a fund designed to make money in an expected Australian mortgage crisis. He’s also been a very active board member and investor in a cybersecurity SaaS company that provides ‘intelligent data’ protection.

In the Media

Hear David speak on King World News

In this interview David discusses the U.S. stock market, U.S. Dollar, gold, silver, the Fed, bailouts, sentiment, the consumer, a coming funding crisis, threats to our freedoms, capital controls and much more.

New David Tice Commentary – The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s – by Nouriel Roubini – Project Syndicate

This article (See Link Below “The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s”) pretty much reflects my views better than any I’ve seen recently. It echoes the conclusion reached by economist David Rosenberg as espoused in today’s Mauldin SIC2020 conference. A big issue that Rosenberg pointed out is that the recent layoffs are perceived by those being laid off as being temporary, but in high likelihood, a much higher percentage of these furloughs could indeed be permanent.  A number of retail establishments were on the verge of shutdown already, and this could represent the ‘final straw’.   Most restaurants can’t survive at 25%-50% peak occupancy, even with heavy take-out business.  Most consumers are going to be resistant to go out until they’re sure they’re safe.

A vaccine is still uncertain and at least a year away.   A recent survey found that 52% of small business owners surveyed expected to be out of business in six months.   Airline fares are going to have to go up a lot to offset capacity restrictions and then you face elasticity of demand issues.  People have learned to use Zoom now and are going to less prone to travel.  Remember that it took four years for air travel to get back to pre-9/11 levels.

Americans are going to save a lot more going forward and this will be a secular change in behavior that will impact the economy and corporate profits dramatically.  The mentality of people could shift permanently towards having more savings & less frivolous consumption.  A lot of small businesses have sprouted up to serve luxurious consumption.  Remember that Depression era babies were influenced for decades.

As far as recent stock market action is concerned, this rally off the low represents just a retracement rally which should still be followed by lower lows.  Legendary market technician Bob Farrell is well known for his Ten Rules for Investing.  Rule #8 is that  Bear markets have three stages — a sharp down, a reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.  This is where I believe we are.  This decline will look more like the 1930’s than the 2008-09 decline.  This second protracted decline resulted in a drawdown of 86% from its secondary high after its 1st bounce.
This is a great time to be short a portfolio of stocks of underperforming companies with very bad fundamentals.

The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s

 

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