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New York Federal Reserve Model Indicating Recession Next Year

The New York Federal Reserve says the U.S. could be headed for a recession next year.  That is based on a model it created using the spread between yields on 10-year and 3-month Treasuries to forecast economic conditions one year ahead. The latest model shows a 33% probability of recession next year. That is very worrisome because, as the chart shows, this model has historically been highly accurate in predicting economic downturns.

New York Federal Reserve Model Indicating Recession Next Year
New York Federal Reserve Model Indicating Recession Next Year

Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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