New York Federal Reserve Model Indicating Recession Next Year
The New York Federal Reserve says the U.S. could be headed for a recession next year. That is based on a model it created using the spread between yields on 10-year and 3-month Treasuries to forecast economic conditions one year ahead. The latest model shows a 33% probability of recession next year. That is very worrisome because, as the chart shows, this model has historically been highly accurate in predicting economic downturns.