New York Federal Reserve Model Indicating Recession Next Year

ByBrad Lamensdorf

The New York Federal Reserve indicating recession next year.  That is based on a model it created using the spread between yields on 10-year and 3-month Treasuries to forecast economic conditions one year ahead. The latest model shows a 33% probability of recession next year. That is very worrisome because, as the chart shows, this model has historically been highly accurate in predicting economic downturns.

New York Federal Reserve Model Indicating Recession Next Year
New York Federal Reserve Model Indicating Recession Next Year

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