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Not Enough Bearish Sentiment to Suggest an Intermediate Stock Market Bottom

We use investor sentiment as contrarian indictors to ascertain stock market direction. Bullish sentiment in the Investor Intelligence Bulls/Bears poll of market newsletter writers dropped to 42.7% from 49% the previous week sparked by the recent correction. However, bearish sentiment barely moved, going from 17.3% to 18.5%.  Bearish and bullish sentiment historically need to be around parity before we can confidently call an intermediate market bottom.

Not Enough Bearish Sentiment to Suggest an Intermediate Stock Market Bottom
Not Enough Bearish Sentiment to Suggest an Intermediate Stock Market Bottom

Chart provided by www.investors-intelligence.com

 


Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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