Odds Favor Short-Term Bounce before Hitting a Ceiling
By John Del Vecchio and Brad Lamensdorf
The market got very oversold last week.
Just like a rubber band being stretched too far in one direction, it will snapback hard when the energy is released. Markets often operate the same way.
Below is the TIR Indicator which measures short-term overbought or oversold conditions.
The TIR measures 29 different short-term indicators and is calculated by Investors Intelligence.
The gist here is that markets bounce around and cane become overbought and oversold. Extremes create short-term opportunities.
As you can see, the indicator tanked and is stretched to the downside, hitting a low of about 8, but wiggling up to 10.3 last Thursday.
So, the odds favor a bounce. The market has bounced since last week. How far can it go? No one knows. But we do know this.
After the bounce comes the ceiling.
In recent Chart’s of the Week we have talked about many stocks losing momentum and the market valuations on the rich side of the spectrum. Overvalued markets can become more overvalued. But, fading momentum is a clear warning sign. Another red flag is that market sentiment is still too bullish.
All those factors favor lower prices in the intermediate term.
Those factors create a ceiling on prices.
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