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Sentiment Indicators Flash New Warning Signs for Stock Investors

Short-term and intermediate term measurement of investor sentiment about stock market direction jumped sharply higher into danger territory last week, flashing warning signs investors should be very careful. The Ned Davis research (NDR) short-term sentiment poll hit 67, while the NDR intermediate-term sentiment poll moved up to 69. Anything near 70 means investors should be very careful.  The CNN Fear & Greed Index closed the week at 73, also a clear warning sign.

Another warning for investors comes from the Investors Intelligence Bull/ Bear measurement of sentiment among investment newsletters. It turned outright bearish. Bullish sentiment among newsletter writers moved up to 60% vs. 18% who were bearish. Since these writers are historically wrong, the Bull/Bear poll also is telling investors to watch out.

Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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