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Sentiment Remains Elevated

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

–Warren Buffett 

Overly Optimistic Investor Market Sentiment Continues to Flash Warning Signs

Short-term market sentiment indicators were showing slightly less investor optimism last week. But, as  contrarian indicators, they were nowhere close to buy territory.  The CNN Fear/Greed index fell back to 48 compared with 55 the previous week.  At the same time, the widely followed Ned Davis Research (NDR) short-term sentiment indicator was still warning of excessive investor optimism despite falling to 62, down from 72 the week before.

Meanwhile intermediate term sentiment indicators showed investors remained stubbornly optimistic.  Investor’s-intelligence Bulls/Bears came in at 50% bulls and 20% bears. The NDR crowd sentiment moved from 66% to 63%..

Beyond warning signs from investor sentiment indicators, I should mention that key banking stocks are starting to fall apart, which could portend a major market correction. We remain cautious

 


Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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