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The NYSE Bullish Percent Index Has Been Warning of U.S. Stock Market Instability

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index chart from Investors Intelligence is a much better way to look at the health and direction of the stock market than indexes such the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrials since it is gives equal weight to all of the stocks on the NYSE based on whether each are overbought or oversold. The S&P 500 indexes, on the other hand, are heavily weighted toward the largest cap stocks which dominate the price direction of indexes.

The NYSE Index, which has been a staple of market timers for over 100 years, has diverged from the heavily weighted indexes. The divergence suggests that the average stock, compared with the largest cap stocks, have not been participating in the bull market. Meaning: The average stocks is in bear market territory.

Asian markets are now in bear territory with many other markets around the world doing poorly. The US correction is a catch up move, but is not yet in an intermediate term oversold position. Typically the NYSE bullish percent need to be close to 20, as in 2015. We currently are at 50 down from a lofty 70.

Chart of the Week The NYSE Bullish Per Cent Index Has Been Warning of U.S. Stock Market Instability
Chart of the Week The NYSE Bullish Per Cent Index Has Been Warning of U.S. Stock Market Instability

Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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