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The Stock Markets’ Record Expansion: When Does the Music Stop?

The Stock Markets’ Record Expansion: When Does the Music Stop? A bull market is usually defined as a period when the stock market keeps going up without a 20% pull back. By that definition, as the chart shows, we are in the longest bull market ever. So when does the music stop? Obviously, no one knows for sure. What we do know is that the record is based on the stock market indexes, and they are questionable proxies for the market as a whole since big  companies like Apple and Alphabet account for a large percentage of the index itself.

In fact, lately more stocks have been declining than advancing. So what we do know is the record is masking the markets’ underlying weakness, not to mention a cooling economy, among  other negative factors. Unfortunately instead of  taking their gains, many ill-informed investors are betting it all, lulled into complacency by the record indexes, not realizing that there’s big danger below the surface.  History tells us that inevitably the bull market by any definition will become a bear market. And those lulled into complacency by the record indexes will pay big.

The Stock Markets’ Record Expansion: When Does the Music Stop?
The Stock Markets’ Record Expansion: When Does the Music Stop?

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Brad Lamensdorf

Brad Lamensdorf, the founder and portfolio manager of Active Alts, is a principal and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF. He previously managed a long-short investment partnership from 1998-2005 under the name Tarpon Capital Management. Earlier in his career Mr. Lamensdorf was an equity trader/market strategist for the Bass Brothers’ trading arm. He managed a short only portfolio in addition to co-managing a $1bil hedging program. He also served as in-house market strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass Brothers money managers.

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